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The North Pole should not be an Arena for Future Geopolitical Conflicts


Austrian writer Vicki Baum (1888-1960) once argued that success is like an ice cold and lonely like the North Pole.

Baum, who achieved success among other things with the novel Menschen im Hotel (“People at a Hotel” in 1929, and its film adaptation won the Oscar for Best Picture in 1932), said these words because he saw the North Pole as a lonely and isolated place, like the feeling when someone reaches the pinnacle of fame.

However, perhaps Baum will be surprised if he learns that in the 21st century, the North Pole and its surroundings or often referred to as the Arctic region have also become a target and a “hot” issue for a number of countries, especially Russia.

Recently, Reuters news agency reported that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu inspected the Arctic garrison or remote Arctic region of the Northern Fleet, as well as a detachment of warships sent to the Arctic Ocean to carry out assignments.

According to Reuters from a statement by the Russian Defense Ministry, Shoigu’s visit was to inspect military infrastructure as well as “readiness for actions to protect and defend critical facilities”.

The visit was also said to start military training on August 11, 2023 which aims to take action to protect Russia’s sovereignty in the waters of the Northern Sea Route.

As part of the combat training, MiG-31 fighter interceptors perform air defense, air reconnaissance and cover for troops and troops operating in the Arctic zone, the ministry said.

Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin also approved the departure of the first LNG Arctic 2 line via the Northern Sea Route from the Murmansk region to its production site located on the Gydan peninsula.

LNG Arctic 2 will be Russia’s third large-scale project to produce liquefied natural gas (LNG) after the Gazprom-led Sakhalin 2 plant in the Russian Pacific and Novatek-controlled Yamal LNG.

Putin’s attention to this energy project, among other things, is so that Russia can achieve its goal of capturing 20 percent of the global LNG market by 2035. Currently, Russia’s market share is still 8 percent.

Nothing new

Russia’s focus on the area around the North Pole is not new because the country with the longest coastline in the Arctic also has a “Russian Arctic Policy”.

The essence of Russia’s policy in the area around the North Pole is to utilize natural resources and protect its ecosystem, among other things, in order to have transportation routes by sea that are in harmony with Russia’s national interests.

Russia, which has stated that it is committed to maintaining the Arctic as a zone of peace and cooperation, is also currently increasing its military presence in the area and strengthening the presence of Border Guard and Coast Guard troops there.

Thus, Russia’s economic interests in the Arctic region are based on two things, namely natural resources and sea transportation routes.

Regarding natural resources in the Arctic, Andreas Othagen, senior researcher at the Fridjtof Nansen Institute in Norway, as quoted on CNBC.com, stated that the area has many resources that can be utilized, from oil and gas, fisheries, to mineral content.

It is estimated that in the Arctic there is potential for oil and gas and mineral deposits which are estimated to be worth up to 35 trillion US dollars (around IDR 536.7 quadrillion).

New shipping routes

Related to sea transportation routes through the North Pole region, the CNN.com website states that the Arctic is vital for Russia because the current rapid melting of ice also opens up new shipping routes from Europe to southeast Asia and vice versa.

The route, which runs along Russia’s Arctic coastline, is also considered shorter than conventional sea routes.

The line, commonly referred to as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), is expected to cut shipping time by up to two weeks compared to the usual route from Europe to Asia via the Suez Canal.

According to Wikipedia, around 2010, it was estimated that around 1.5 million tons of goods were sent through the NSR each year and traffic on this route is expected to increase 10-fold by 2020. By 2030, it is estimated

that shipping lines through the NSR could account for a quarter of all cargo via the sea route between Europe and Asia.

President Putin has also emphasized on a number of occasions that the development of the NSR is very important because it can create effective logistics routes, including to the Southeast Asian region.

New version

Based on a study from The Artic Institute (TAI; a think tank based in Washington DC), in March 2023, the Kremlin–the name for the Russian government–issued the latest version of its foreign policy draft document, which contains a significant Arctic region. .

In the document, the Arctic region is mentioned as one of the priority areas, and all forms of regional cooperation with the participation of Western countries, such as the Arctic Council, are said to have been replaced by emphasizing the development of relations with foreign countries on a bilateral basis, within the framework of the structure and relevant multilateral mechanisms.

Moreover, after Norway has held the chairmanship of the Arctic Council since 2023, Russian Ambassador to the Arctic Nikolay Korchunov stated that Moscow could leave the Council if its country’s rights are violated.

In keeping with Moscow’s long-standing view against bringing an element of confrontation to the Arctic, the concept spawned in 2023 also redefines this as “neutralizing the policy of hostile countries to militarize the region and limit Russia’s opportunities to exercise its sovereign rights in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation.” “.

Thus, TAI assesses that Russia is rethinking the geography of international cooperation in the Arctic region. Moreover, the document also mentions mutually beneficial cooperation with non-Arctic countries that pursue constructive policies towards Russia and are interested in international activities in the Arctic, including infrastructure development of the Northern Sea Route.

According to TAI, the wording shows a tendency to work with countries outside the Arctic region, such as China.

Especially at this time, relations between China and Russia can be said to be in a very strong and close condition, with the concept of “friendship without borders” between the two countries.

Worries

Of course this close cooperation is expected to raise concern, especially from the military alliance of countries that are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance.

Moreover, one of the countries in the Arctic region, namely Finland, will also in 2023 become one of the countries that have just joined NATO. Not to mention if Sweden also officially joins the alliance this year too.

It should be noted that there are eight member countries in the Arctic Council, namely the US, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Canada, Norway, Russia and Sweden, which means that almost all of the member countries have affiliations with the NATO alliance.

In addition, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 (which the Russians call a “special military operation”), it is certain that the Arctic can also play an important role in future geopolitical conditions, both economically and security.

For this reason, it is hoped that various important actors in the Arctic region and its surroundings will be able to keep the Arctic, which, although quiet and isolated, has a lot of economic potential for many parties, so that it is always in a peaceful state.

This is very important so that this area does not become an arena for geopolitical conflicts in the future.

Source : Antara News

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