NATO is predicted to collapse in 2025. The United States (US) and Europe are said to be on the verge of the most important split in international relations in recent decades.
This is believed by Phillips Payson O’Brien, Professor at the University of St. Andrews Scotland. The author of ” How the War Was Won: Air-Sea Power and Allied Victory in World War II “ wrote his opinion in The Atlantic , September 2.
“Since 1949, NATO has been a constant party in world security. Initially an alliance between the United States, Canada and 10 countries in Western Europe, NATO won the Cold War and has since expanded to cover almost all of Europe,” he said, quoted by CNBC Indonesia , Tuesday (5/9/2023).
“This is the single most successful security group in modern global history. (But) this country will also probably collapse by 2025,” he added.
He explained a number of things that caused the collapse. This points to a major divide between populists in the US Republican Party – led by Donald Trump but now a majority in the Republican Party – and security concerns in much of Europe.
“The immediate catalyst for this collapse was the war in Ukraine. When the dominant faction within one of America’s two major political parties did not see the point in helping a democracy-minded country fight the Russian invaders,” he said.
“This shows that the center of the political spectrum has shifted, making the US a powerless, less reliable ally for Europe,” he said.
In detail, he described how opposition to arming Ukraine was expressed not by Trump but by other Republican leaders such as Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy.
“If Trump or one of his imitators wins the presidency in November 2024, Europe will be faced with a new American administration that will end all support for Ukraine,” O’Brien warned of the possibility.
When that happens, he continued, European countries will not be able to replace the loss of US military assistance. That, he stressed, would result in military defeat for Ukraine.
“If the US doesn’t get involved, Europe will be divided on this issue, with Eastern and Baltic states eager but unable to keep pouring weapons into Kyiv,” he explained.
“And Western countries such as France and Germany will most likely seek peace with Russia,” he said.
This is what will be the downfall of NATO. There will be bitterness and distrust.
“The worst impact would be a permanent rupture in European cooperation,” he said.
Previously, Russia attacked Ukraine since February 2022. NATO helped Ukraine by supplying weapons even though it had not agreed to air power.
Source : CNBC
