The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is predicted to disband in 2025. This was predicted by Phillips Payson O’Brien, Professor at the University of St. Andrews Scotland.
The author of “How the War Was Won: Air-Sea Power and Allied Victory in World War II” wrote his opinion in The Atlantic , early September. The United States (US) and Europe are said to be on the verge of the most important split in international relations in recent decades.
“Since 1949, NATO has been a constant party in world security. Initially an alliance between the United States, Canada and 10 countries in Western Europe, NATO won the Cold War and has since expanded to cover almost all of Europe,” he said, quoted by CNBC Indonesia, Tabu (6/9/2023).
“This is the single most successful security group in modern global history. (But) this country will also probably collapse by 2025,” he added.
According to him, the Russian-Ukrainian war will be the culprit. This will affect internal US politics and bring division to NATO.
“The immediate catalyst for this collapse was the war in Ukraine,” he stressed.
“When the dominant faction within one of America’s two major political parties does not see the need to help a democracy-minded country fight against Russian invaders,” he said again.
“This shows that the center of the political spectrum has shifted, making the US a powerless, less reliable ally for Europe,” he said.
In detail, he describes how opposition to arming Ukraine emerged in the US Congress. The popular view in the Republican Party is that many Republicans do not want to finance Ukraine.
Not only Donald Trump, other Republican leaders such as Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy have also shown the same thing. He said if they led the party NATO’s unanimity in the war with Russia would be difficult.
“If Trump or one of his imitators wins the presidency in November 2024, Europe will be faced with a new American administration that will end all support for Ukraine,” O’Brien warned.
When that happens, he continued, European countries will not be able to replace the loss of US military assistance. That, he stressed, would result in military defeat for Ukraine.
“If the US doesn’t get involved, Europe will be divided on this issue, with Eastern and Baltic states eager but unable to keep pouring weapons into Kyiv,” he explained.
“And Western countries such as France and Germany will most likely seek peace with Russia,” he said.
This is what will be the downfall of NATO. There will be bitterness and distrust.
“The worst impact would be a permanent rupture in European cooperation,” he said.
Previously, Russia attacked Ukraine since February 2022. NATO helped Ukraine by supplying weapons even though it had not agreed to air power.
Failed NATO Tactics?
Meanwhile, the NATO alliance’s tactics were apparently applied by Ukrainian troops to counterattack Russia. This is in line with the entry of a lot of Western war equipment into the country, from tanks to armored vehicles, which were donated by the United States (US) and its allies.
However, the strategy used is said by a number of analysts to have failed. Quoting Newsweek, even though Ukraine now has combined arms, Western and NATO tactics will not succeed without air power.
“For the Western approach to work effectively, you need all the elements,” said British Army Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, who previously led Britain and NATO’s chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defence.
“And, the key element is air power,” he stressed.
According to de Bretton-Gordon without Western aircraft to challenge Russian control of the skies, Ukrainian forces’ efforts were only half-assed. He considered the Ukrainian fighting to be like “one hand tied behind his back”.
“For me, that is the most important part here,” explained de Bretton-Gordon again.
Other experts also said the same thing. NATO’s fighting style relies heavily on controlling the skies.
“No living member of NATO’s armed forces has experienced fighting similar to what Ukraine has experienced over the past 18 months,” said strategic analyst at the Hague Center for Security Studies (HCSS), Davis Ellison.
“NATO’s land warfare regimen has never been seriously tested against a major national enemy, despite decades of investment and training,” he said.
Meanwhile, according to other researchers, Ukrainian troops have been trained by the West. But a massive shortage of experienced personnel often makes the difference on the field.
“Arguably, the problem is the assumption that with a few months of training, Ukrainian units can be turned into as strong in as many battles as American forces might be,” said senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Michael Kofman.
Since June, Ukraine has announced a counterattack on Russia. But some consider Ukraine’s offensive stalled.
Source : CNBC
